Structural EC/EU Solution For The Boat Refugees Problem



Greece is receiving boat refugees in a daily increasing number (above 1,000 a day) and Italy (by it's coast guard) has even days of more than 4,000 a day (based on IOM data). So it’s save to say that annual flow of the boat refugees to the EU will rise to an far above 1 million a year level and maybe even will reach a level somewhere south of the 2 million number annual (plus take in consideration that this is a recurring issue/flow) (plus take in consideration that it’s an exponential growth issue/flow: year after year increasing in volume).

The current boat migrant volume flow is 218,394 a month (October 2015), the current flow grow rate is 27%% a month (September 2015 had 172.843 registered boat migrants). Just by starting Excel one will see what the figures are 1 year from now, or 2 years from now, etc. Year 1 data: M1:218,394, M2:277,360, M3:352,248, M4:447,355, M5:568,140, M6:721,538, M7:916,353, M8:1,163,769, M9:1,477,987, M10:1,877,043, M11:2,383,844, M12:3,027,482, total number after 1 year: 13,431,514. It will deliver an exponential growth chart, if one calculates the Year 2 data one will get a staggering 249,898,007 in 2 years from now boat migrant number.

There is no reason to expect the 27% increase per month to drop, as the current trend is more an increasing percentage each month (also in an exponential way, which is not included in the numbers above).

Add to this the by law permitted following family reunion (3, 4 or 5 per every male migrant) and Europe (500 million people and a near zero growth economy), will get a population growth of more than 10% in one year. Calculating the second year number and attached family reunion figure delivers a figure not even worth mentioning as handling that kind of volume (tripling the EU population in 2 year) is simply not possible (even only in logistic terms). So Europe has a problem at it hands and not a small one. A problem that only can be addressed at solving it by other means.

The boat refugee problem should not become the next new huge problem for the EU that would lead to more internal problems. This is not a statement driven by any political flavour on this issue (we don’t have, we’re not that political flavoured, we’re more of the finding solutions branch), but by realistic assessment (we have).

But there’s more to this: The North African coast is moving at fast pace towards an unsafe shipping lane (throwing this back into time 200 years: when these coasts where in the top 5 of global sea lane nightmares). This is threatening the trade/supply logistics of the EU each month more and more.

It’s time for structural solutions. Fake solutions will only increase the problem. As is kicking the can down the road.

What’s a structural solution? A solution that a) empowers the whole North African region economic, b) does that with at minimal cost, c) does that in a markets leveraged way, and d) delivers the European industries new areas of distribution/demand.

How to do that? By using two forces/abundances of nature. Those two abundances are a) deserts and b) seawater. Merge them with the help of salt loving commercial crops (like salicornia: a salt water loving soy like protein/fat supplying commercial crop) and this ‘structured’ nature will do the job.

It’s the cheapest way to deliver massive economic development to the whole North African region for/in ‘pennies at the dollar’ model. The market will pay for it / empower it / leverage it. More on background information on the model can be found on:

http://www.planck.org/publications/Sea-Water-Based-Desert-Greening
http://www.planck.org/publications/Ending-Global-Poverty-By-Seawater
http://www.planck.org/publications/Global-Deserts-Exploration-Model
http://www.planck.org/publications/Global-Deserts-Investment-Model
http://www.planck.org/downloads/Emerging-Nations-Desert-Development-PPP.pdf
http://www.desertcorp.com/slides/DesertCorp-Slide-Presentation.pdf
http://www.desertcorp.com





Europe has an exploding immigrant problem, bigger than they could handle. Europe also has a protein production deficit. Africa has besides a young population just not yet the economy to serve these people. But Africa also has three yet not appreciated big advantages: deserts and access to sea water and has giant salt water aquifers. Why not combine those all and solve the mutual problems?

To break down the above described basic economics in some nutshell lines in the realm of an Europe/Africa migrants solution: All inclusive direct investment per family farm is E 100,000, this is inclusive startup period finance that ensures the first 2 years of operation of the farm. The external indirect investments (infrastructure and facilities) are also E 100,000 per farm. So the total investment is E 200,000. The equity/guarantee demand is 25%, so E 50,000 equity needed. An average refugee/migrant family/unit is 5 persons. So the investment/equity/guarantee is E 10,000 (aka E 10k) per refugee/migrant.

But: The host nations of course will demand something in return. Negotiations will start at the 'we do the same for your own population' negotiation position. But maybe they will demand more (even up to a 1 to 1 ratio: for each 1 refugee/migrant family 1 national family should have a farm too). This increases the equity/guarantee demand per migrant from E 10,000 to E 20,000, so we'll not be that easy with that. And there will be some competition between desert nations do the demands of the desert nations will not be that big, as the outcome of those investments are too attractive for them.

Note that this is an investment/equity/guarantee, this is not a cost. So the solution to the refugee/migrant problem can be done without costs. With as model bonuses: a) more rest/peace in the backyard of Europe and b) more turnover for European industries. Quite a paradigmatic change.

Migrants who don't pass the education/attitude tests or who don’t want to become farmer can work at the construction or by facility companies. The migrant / domestic worker ratio is also something that will be used in the host nation negotiations. These workers will increase the tax base instantly: the workers will be paid national average wages and taxes will be paid on their wages. The host nations can demand import duties, but we will try to get an initial suspension of this (or it will be paid subordinated, as in woven it into the equity structure).

So the solution to the migrant problem can be done without costs. Quite a paradigmatic change.

For the peace lovers: This will stabilizes the North African and Near East region severely. Delivering the poorest 1 billion people an economic foundation in the middle of the deserts. In nations with a 75% youth unemployment rate, this is paradigmatic change for the better.

For the green lovers: Exactly 25% of the greened desert area will be green nature (areas between the farms). It will make the mid of the Sahara (simply by the use of sea water and halophytes) a green paradise. It will cool down these regions severely (by evaporation: water evaporation demands a lot of heat). It will deliver rains to this part of the earth again.

If you want to see the basic science behind salt water loving crops (halophytes is their family name) see http://www.desertcorp.com/documents/Potential-of-Salt-Agriculture-in-Scientific-American.pdf). Halophytes can secure Europe’s food security and structural protein production deficit in nearby regions.

Not doing this will lead to increasing USA involvement in North Africa. I think we all shouldn’t want that: where these guys start to ‘structure’, the only result is failed states. This time literally in our backyard. These guys don’t solve anything, they are ideological blinded to assess the realm results of their efforts, they only multiply problems in their quest for maintaining their crumbling empire: It’s PR miracle that they still are able to ‘sell’ their ‘solutions’.

They are talking about stationing their drone dead squads in the North African region: their recipe for destabilization would any realist doing some research say. The collateral damage caused by their drone programs leads to growth of support for terrorists and growth of refugee flows. See the refugee outflow of Syria towards the EU (just another natural gas pipeline driven conflict, nothing more, nothing less). The US has become unfortunately very good in destabilization. The last years of the American Century. The last thing the EU needs is more US involvement in North Africa. The result will be further destabilization and massive refugee flows (as proof of this: just one word: Libya).

Doing nothing or achieving any other solution (from high density patrolling this huge sea area till offering nations an adoption fee) is far more expensive and thereby will be unrealistic in financial/fiscal terms. This is no longer about once ‘just’ 40,000 people (which already caused problems), this is about somewhere south of 2,000,000 people. Annual. No government has the fiscal funds for such voluminous flows. This is not about immigration. This is about making/doing immigration right.

The solution described above is the only solution that a) performs (stabilizes NA, brings economic progress in NA and delivers huge new markets to the European industries) and b) is affordable (as the powers of the agricultural and financial markets will power it: it’s based on good economics).

When the EC wants to realize this: let’s talk. Someone has to take the lead within the EC. The nations of North Africa will applaud it for sure too. This could become EC’s/EU’s success story, making paradigmatic change in the global perception of the EC/EU.

The EC/EU need some successes right now. This is one that is being served to her ‘on a plate’. It just needs a choice. The rest can be taking care of.



See also International Currency Stability
See also Europe: Diagnosis and Prescription
See also Governmental Funding Turbulence
See also Labour Taxation
See also Money Creation
See also Energy Open Finance Platform
See also Global PV Solar Energy Finance Model
See also EQE/EBS Model Summary Diagram
See also BQE: Bilateral Currency Swaps
See also Gold Backing vs EQE/EBS Backing
See also Secular Stagnation as Denial Term
See also Financial QE vs Productive QE
See also Productive Capitalism Perspectives
See also Emerging Nations - Electricity PPP
See also Emerging Nations - Solar PPP
See also Easy Instant Solarizing Nations
See also Making The Euro More Offensive
See also Structural EU/EC Boat Refugees Solution



See also Global Solar Rollout - Description - Diagram
See also Regional Solar Rollout - Description - Diagram
See also Obama Administration Energy Strategy
See also China As Global Leading Solar Energy Nation
See also Open Finance Platform for Energy Investments
See also Iceland 3.0: Geothermal and Energy as Currency
See also Addressing Economic Decline of the Global West
See also IntraContinental: Continental Rail Schedules
See also Global West Enters Economic Adulthood
See also Global East Driven Globalization 2.0
See also Financial Capitalism vs Productive Capitalism
See also CIRI (China India Russia Iran) Avoids Dollar
See also Global West Gets A Common Currency
See also What Ended Global West Dominance
See also National Economic Development Organizations
See also Desert Investment Economics
See also Ending Global Poverty (By Sea Water Irrigation)



See also Global Deserts Exploration Model
See also WaterTech and MicroCredit Merge
See also Lupin As Soy Replacer
See also Global Seed Cartels Aren't Right
See also Global Food Model: Local to Global
See also Sun / Earth Interactions
See also Telco 3.0 : Telco out of the Cloud
See also National Business Clusters Abroad
See also Scientific Education/Research Funding
See also Iran: National Economic Plan
See also Immigrants and Trade
See also Emerging Nations - Minerals PPP
See also Emerging Nations - Deserts PPP
See also Emerging Nations - Energy PPP
See also National Solar Fund Model
See also Secular Islamic Finance
See also Open Energy Finance Platform

Gijs Graafland / Planck Foundation / Amsterdam 2015

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